With the first official “hat in the ring” by U.S. Senator Ted Cruz, the free-for-all race for the Republican presidential nomination is off and running, to be followed in early April by fellow conservative U.S. Senator Rand Paul - all leading to another crowded Republican primary field.
In a party where half of self-identified Republicans identiy as either conservative or extremely conservative (according to the 2012 American National Election Study), prospective Republican presidential candidates must play to the party’s base.
According to the 2012 ANES survey, primary voters were more conservative than the overall party: 60 percent of primary voters self-identified as Republican said they were either conservative or extremely conservative in their ideology.
But the conservative wing of the Republican Party is one that can be divided into subgroups as well, and Cruz’s launching pad at the Christian institution of higher education, Liberty University, demonstrates that the popular Tea Party conservative will be going after the all-important Republican evangelical voter as well.
In a review of the 2012 primaries and caucuses, the Pew Research Center analyzed the early GOP presidential contests with a focus on the role of religion. Specifically, the report shows that Romney did better among non-evangelical voters than among evangelicals.
In the classic two early states where evangelicals dominate the caucus and primary electorates, Romney tied for third among evangelical voters in Iowa and second in South Carolina.
But among non-evangelical voters in both states, Romney placed first, with the winner of the evangelical vote (Santorum in Iowa and Gingrich in South Carolina) finishing third and second among non-evangelicals.
And while evangelicals made up 56 percent of Iowa’s caucus electorate and 64 percent of South Carolina’s primary electorate, the battle between those seeking the born-again—Cruz, along with former Arkansas governor and minister Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum—could splinter this group, thus diluting their electoral power to decide the nomination.
With the crowd of presidential contenders in the GOP expected and the divisions that will be created by not just the ultra-conservative candidates, the likelihood of having another roller-coaster ride throughout the Republican primary process should probably be taken with a fully-secured seat-belt locked in place.
